自然灾害预测面临的挑战和新途径

Challenge Faced by and New Approaches to the Natural Disaster Prediction

在论述了自然灾害预测面临挑战的同时，运用耗散结构理论讨论了自然灾害特别是荒漠化的形成机理和治理途径，指出了复杂系统预报理论的一种可能的科学取向。

： In this paper the challenge faced by the natural disaster prediction is expounded and , at the same time ,the mechanism of formation of the natural disasters (esp. the desertification) and their harnessing approaches are discussed in light of the theory for the dissipative structures. A possible scientific orientation with respect to the prediction of complex systems is pointed out as well.