精河-伊宁铁路工程沿线气象参数设计值研究

Study on Design Factors of Meteorology along the Railway in Construction from Jinghe to Yining

根据精河-伊宁铁路沿线 16个气象观测站近 40年 (1961～ 1998年 )的气象资料，建立了铁路沿线无资料地区 A区冬季（ 1月）平均气温预测模式为： TA1=－ 33.5201＋ 0.203376φ＋ 2.308809H。以概率模式预测该铁路沿线气温、日照时数、 24h(08～ 08时 )最大降水量不同概率设计值。由此揭示了精河-伊宁铁路沿线冬季 (1月 )平均气温、日照时数、 24h(08～ 08时 )最大降水量、各历时最大降水量的分布规律。这一研究成果已应用于该铁路工程设计中，将气象要素概率模式应用于西部大开发铁路工程建设中，这在气候研究领域尚属首次。

A predicting formula of average temperature in January in A area without data is given as TA1=－ 33.5201＋ 0.203376φ＋ 2.308809H by using the meteorological data from 16 stations along the railway from Jinghe to Yining over last 40 years.Then,a probability formula is set up to predict design values of temperature,sunshine duration,maximum precipitation during 24 hours in different probability along the railroad.At last,the distributions of average temperature,sunshine duration,maximum precipitation during 24 hours and any durations are given.It's the first time to apply the probability model to railway engineering in climatology fields.