中国煤炭产业集中度与经济增长的关系研究

Research on the relationship between coal industry concentration degree and economic growth in China

基于新古典生产函数,本文分析了经济增长和煤炭产业集中度的关系,通过协整关系检验、Granger因果关系以及方差分解等方法对上述变量进行了实证研究。研究结论表明,煤炭行业集中度和经济增长存在着正相关关系以及长期均衡关系。短期内,煤炭市场集中度和经济增长存在单向的Granger因果关系;长期内,存在经济增长到煤炭集中度、资本存量到煤炭集中度、人力资本到煤炭集中度、人力资本到经济增长以及经济增长到资本存量的单向Granger因果关系。煤炭市场集中度、人力资本以及资本存量对经济增长的影响不仅快而且反映比较强烈,煤炭集中度和人力资本对经济增长具有持续性影响,资本存量对经济增长不具有持续性影响。这为煤炭行业提高集中度促进经济增长提供了实证依据。

Based on the neo-classical production function, this paper analyzes the relationship between the economic growth and the concentration degree of the coal industry by using the co-integration relationship test,Granger causality and variance decomposition method. The conclusion of the study shows that there is a positive correlation and the long-term equilibrium relationship between the economic growth and the concentration of the coal industry. During the short period, there is a one-way Granger causality between the coal market concentration and economic growth. During the long term, there is the one-way Granger causality from economic growth to the coal concentration, from the capital stock to the coal concentration, from the human capital to the coal concentration,from the human capital to economic growth and from the economic growth to the capital stock. The impact of the coal market concentration, human capital as well as capital stock on the economic growth is not only fast and relatively strong. The coal concentration and human capital has a persistent impact on the economic growth, but the capital stock has not persistent impact on economic growth. This paper provides empirical evidence for increasing the concentration of the coal industry.