三峡库区宜昌段1997―2012年鼠密度灰色模型构建及预测

Analysis and forecast of rat density in Three Gorges reservoir area in Yichang,Hubei by Grey Model(1997-2012)

目的探讨三峡库区宜昌段鼠密度变化规律。方法对三峡库区宜昌段1997―2012年室内外鼠密度,构建灰色模型GM(1,1),并进行预测分析。结果预测2013―2014年监测点鼠密度呈逐年轻微下降趋势,拟合模型结果满意,室内鼠密度分别为1.55%、1.45%;室外鼠密度分别为1.30%、1.29%。结论三峡库区宜昌段随着生态环境的改变,鼠密度和鼠类构成也发生相应变化,要加强鼠密度监测,为防制媒介传染病的发生提供参考。

Objective To explorer the rat density variation in Three Gorges reservoir area in Yichang,Hubei.Methods By establishing GM（1,1）model of rat density in Three Gorges reservoir area in Yichang city from 1997to 2012,to forecast the indoor and outdoor rat density from 2013to 2014.Results The predicted values of rat density showed slight downward trend from 2013to 2014in Three Gorges reservoir area in Yichang city.The fitted models are significant statistically.The indoor rat densities will be 1.55%and 1.45%,1.30%and 1.29%for outdoor from 2013to 2014.Conclusion With the environment changes in Yichang Three Gorges reservoir,the rat density and constitute were changed correspondingly.It is suggested that rat density surveillance should be strengthened for vector-borne diseases control and prevention.