克山县地下水埋深时间序列分析预测模型

Analysis forecast model of time series for groundwater buried depth in Keshan county

地下水埋深是衡量饮水安全的重要指标,可以通过其趋势变化来初步评价农村饮水安全状况以及供水工程的合理性。文中以克山县古城镇为例,应用时间序列分析法,建立时间序列预测模型,结合克山县古城镇2000—2010年长观井逐月地下水埋深监测数据进行分析,得出精度较高的拟合与预报数据。未来3年地下水埋深相对稳定,说明该地区饮水水量有保证;同时,揭示了该区地下水动态变化规律,为合理建设农村饮水安全工程提供了重要信息和保障。

The Groundwater buried depth is an important index to evaluate the drinking water safety. The safety of rural drinking water and the rationality of the water supply project could be evaluated by the trend of the groundwater depth. Taking the Gucheng town of Keshan county as an example, the time series forecasting model is built by the time series analysis method, which could obtain the high accuracy fitting and forecasting data result combining with the monthly groundwater buried depth monitoring data of long-term observation wells for the Gucheng town from year 2000 to 2010. The groundwater depth is stable in the coming three years, which means that the drinking water quantity is enough in this area. The dynamic change trend of groundwater in this area is revealed, which could provide the important information and assurance for reasonable rural drinking safety project construction.