基于耗散结构理论的复杂流程网络安全风险渗透

Study on Safety Risk Pervasion Model of Complicated Business Process Network Based on Dissipation Structure Theory

针对生产/服务流程安全风险分析问题,运用耗散结构理论从结构和演化2个层面阐述流程风险渗透机理;构建复杂流程安全风险网络,以网络节点触发概率、重要度和吸引度为渗透参数,刻画流程安全风险的传播、累积、耗散过程,并运用极大熵模型和灰关联熵模型计算安全风险触发概率和渗透强度;最后,建立改进蚁群算法最高安全风险路径渗透模型。结合机务准备流程实例,验证了模型的有效性,为复杂流程安全风险管理提供新方法。

Aiming at the safety analysis of complicated business process,its pervasion mechanism is expoun-ded both from structure and evolvement.The course of its transfer,accumulation and release is depicted with frequency and penetrability of safety risk network node,which are caculated by maximun entropy model and grey relation entropy model.Finally,an applied case of flight line maintenance process is pro-vided to illustrate the feasibility crisp path based on ant algorithm,and to verify the efficiency to find the process crisp nodes which become the proofs for the availability of process risk management.