煤与瓦斯突出多指标综合辨识与实时预警研究

Multi-index comprehensive identification and real-time warning of coal and gas outburst

为实现煤与瓦斯突出的准确辨识和及时预警,构建了新的预警指标体系,并建立了实时预警系统。预警指标体系包括实时指标、动态指标、预测和基础指标,其中,实时指标主要有波动率、频率、体积分数瞬时增幅和均线,反映瓦斯涌出异常的本质和现象;动态指标有打钻异常、地应力显现、集中应力、地质构造等,主要反映瓦斯压力和地应力异常;预测指标和煤层基础信息主要反映煤层和瓦斯地质异常。然后,基于C/S架构,设计了煤与瓦斯突出实时预警系统,可实现数据分布处理、预警信息多渠道表达和分级发布。最后采用某矿瓦斯突出历史数据,进行了煤与瓦斯突出早期辨识与实时预警模拟,结果表明:根据设定的指标体系和判别标准,可提前近3 h进入响应预警级别,基本可实现突出早期预警与及时响应,并为事故的处理和科学决策提供支持。

In this paper, to realize the accurate identification and timely warning of coal and gas out- burst, a new early warning index system was built, and a real-time warning system was designed. The early warning index system includes real time indexes, dynamic indexes, and fundamental indexes. The real time indexes mainly refer to volatility, frequency, concentration amplification and moving average, which reflectes the phenomenon and essence of gas abnormal effusing, and the dynamic indexes include abnormal drilling, crustal stress display, concentrated stress, geological structure, etc, which mainly re- flectes anomaly of gas pressure and crustal stress, while the fundamental index mainly reflectes the anomaly of coal seam geology. Then, based on C/S frame, the real time warning system of coal and gas outburst was designed, through which distributed approach of data, multi-channel expression and grad-ing diffusion of warning information can be achieved. Finally, the early identification and real time warning of outburst were simulated according to the historical outburst data of one mine. The results show that the warning level of outburst can be achieved to response level three hours earlier, which can meet the requirements of identification and warning of coal and gas outburs in coal mine.