广东省经济发展与滨海环境污染的关系

Relationship Between Economic Development and Coastal Environment in Guangdong Province

以环境库兹涅茨理论为基础,通过对广东省1991―2011年的经济发展与废水排放相关数据进行分析,建立了广东省经济增长与废水排放的环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)计量模型。结果表明:1)广东省废水排放总量、生活污水排放量与GDP之间存在较明显的库兹涅兹曲线关系。2)工业废水排放量与GDP之间出现了脱钩效应,工业生产对资源环境压力逐步降低。3)生活污水排放量增长却相对较快,逐渐成为废水排放的主体,致使滨海水体中无机氮与磷酸盐的含量呈现出逐年递增的趋势,滨海地区水质富营养化日趋严重,赤潮发生的频率逐渐增多,直接威胁到滨海地区水体功能的正常发挥。4)从渔获率的年际变化来看:近年来广东省滨海水域生物多样性有所恢复,但形势仍不容乐观。尽管EKC理论表明经济增长最终会改善环境质量,但这是有前提条件的。广东省必须在发展经济的同时,制定合理的经济发展与环境保护政策,建立滨海生态环境保护区,实现区域经济与环境的和谐发展。

With the rapid economic development, resource and environmental pollution problems have gradually become serious, the limitedness of resources and importance of environment are gaining more and more public attention. The paper analyzes the relationship between economic development and coastal environment in Guangdong province during 1991-2011. An Environmental Kuznets Curve （EKC） econometric mode of the relationship between economic growth and waste water discharge in Guangdong was established. The results showed that：Fitting curves of Guangdong’s waste water emissions and GDP reflected significant EKC relation. A decoupling effect occurred between industrial wastewater emissions and GDP. Industrial production’s pressure on resources and the environment gradually reduced. Sewage emissions growth was relatively fast, leading to serious eutrophication of coastal waters. The frequency of occurrence of red-tide gradually increased, which had a direct threat to the normal functioning of the coastal water body. The annual change of coastal catch rate in Guangdong suggested that the biodiversity of the coastal waters was to a certain extent restored, but the situation was still not optimistic. The EKC theory shows that economic growth will ultimately improve the quality of the environment, but that has prerequisite. The province must develop environmental protection policy and establish coastal ecological conservation areas, so as to achieve regional economic development in harmony with the environment.