全球金融危机后美国经济复苏特点及原因分析

After the Global Financial Crisis ——On the Features and Causes of American Economic Recovery

2008年全球金融危机爆发后,美国经济从2009年第三季度开始复苏并出现了新的特点,最重要的特点就是复苏在持续,但始终不够强劲。宏观上增长率不高,就业率提高不快;行业复苏不平衡,服务业复苏快于制造业,但几乎所有行业都已复苏;微观上企业赢利状态很好,利润总额达到历史水平。美国经济之所以微观基础扎实而宏观表现不佳,其原因在于:供给方面,生产率提高不快,没有新的技术突破;需求方面,由于家庭和企业对未来的预期还不很乐观,消费和投资需求仍然不旺;政策方面,尽管货币政策和财政政策都对复苏起了很大作用,但其边际效用在递减;外部环境方面,受欧债危机等影响,外部条件总体上不是十分有利。因此,笔者认为,美国经济近期内仍将维持比较缓慢的复苏,达不到其潜在的增长率水平,除非出现较大的技术进步或很好的外部条件。

After the breakout of the global financial crisis in 2008, the U.S. economy began to recover since the third quarter of 2009 with new features. The most important feature is the continuation of the recovery though not robust enough throughout the period. In macroeconomic terms, the growth rate is not high and the employment rate grows modestly; the recovery is unbalanced among industries, i.e., the recovery of service industries is faster than commodities though almost all industries have recovered; in microeconomic terms, enterprises are in a good shapeof gaining profit, which have reached a record high. A good microeconomic performance with a not so good macroeconomic one can be attributed to the following causes: on the supply side, productivity rate grows slowly in the absence of new breakthroughs in technology; on the demand side, consumption and investment remain plain as households and enterprises are not very optimistic about the future; on the policy side, monetary policy and budget policy play a big role in economic recovery, though its marginal efficiency is decreasing; and on the external environment, external condition is not very ideal due to the impact of debt crisis of Europe. Thus, the U.S. economy will presumably remain recovering though quite slowly, and will fail to reach its potential growth rate unless there occurs of a big technology progress or a good external condition.