气象因素对京津唐电网夏季负荷特性影响分析

Impact of meteorological factors on summer load characteristics of Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan Power Grid

京津唐电网作为一个独立的电网控制区,用电负荷呈现日趋明显的城市负荷特性。在梳理大量京津唐电网负荷数据的基础上,总结了京津唐电网不同天气条件下的夏季负荷特性,探讨了气象因素与电网负荷特性之间的关系,辨识出京津唐电网夏季负荷主导因素,采用多项式曲线回归方法分析了温度、湿度对京津唐电网负荷的灵敏度关系,给出了京津唐电网夏季考虑热累积效应后的修正最高温度公式,并对提高负荷预测准确度的应用效果进行初步分析。

Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan Power Grid,as an independent grid control area,has increasingly apparent city load characteristics. Its load characteristics are summarized based on its massive load data for different summer weather conditions. The relationship between meteorological factors and its load characteristics is explored and the dominant factors of its summer load are identified. The sensitivity of grid load to temperature and humidity is studied by the polynomial curve regression analysis and the correction formula of summer maximum temperature in that area is given with the consideration of the cumulative heat effect. The effect of its application in the improvement of load forecasting accuracy is analyzed.