中国产业动态比较优势的实证研究——基于马尔科夫链的方法

An Empirical Study on the Dynamic Comparative Advantage of the China's Industry:Based on Markov Chain

本文运用马尔科夫链的方法测算了我国产业比较优势的动态转化过程,并总结了相应的特征。结果表明,我国一些传统的劳动密集型行业依然具有较强的比较优势,部分技术与资本密集行业的竞争优势处于上升的态势,而一些初级产品与资源型产品的竞争力则处于下降的趋势。而且,从动态角度来看,具有强比较优势和强比较劣势的产业延续性较强,即这些产业较难改变其比较优势状态。具有弱比较劣势和弱比较优势的产业流动性较大,这一类产业通过培养很有可能进入强比较优势的行列,同样也有可能成为比较劣势的产业。基于此,本享认为,我国产业并不只是存在着要么分工锁定、要么与发达国家分工反转这两端的情况,而是存在着很多中间的产业部门。从动态的角度来看,如果对其中具有潜力的产业进行合理、适当的扶持,其将有可能成为我国在国际上具有竞争力的产业。因此,我国培育产业的动态比较优势,首先应针对不同比较优势的产业实施差异化的发展策略。对于现有的具有比较优势的产业,可以更多地引入市场竞争机制,给予企业充分的自主权。对于一些潜在的、未来较有可能成为比较优势的产业,政府可以在关键环节适当加以扶持,提高其国内生产以及在出口中的竞争力。而对于丧失比较优势的产业,则可以逐步淘汰相应的环节以及通过产业转移实现资源的优化配置。但同时,培育产业动态比较优势不等于培养动态比较优势产业,还包括体现动态比较优势的高级要素,从产业链和价值链的角度,培育体现动态比较优势功能环节。而且更应该发挥市场的力量,打破产业调整的各种壁垒,提高其转换能力,降低产业转型升级的成本。

This paper measured the dynamic comparative advantage of China＇s industry by Markov chain method. The results show that some of our traditional labor-intensive industries still have a strong comparative advantage. The competitive advantage of some technology and capital-intensive industries is in an upward trend. While the some primary and resource-based products are in downward trend. Moreover, from a dynamic perspective, the strong comparative advantage and disadvantage industries have the stronger continuity. It is difficult to change their comparative advantage states. The weaker comparative disadvantage and advantage industries have the higher mobility; this type of industry is likely to enter the ranks of strong comparative advantage through cultivating and vice versa. Based on this ,we think that there are many intermediate sectors in addition to the locking and reversing industries. Some of the potential industries are likely to become internationally competitive industries if they get some reasonable and appropriate support. It is important for different comparative advantage industries implement differentiated development strategy. For existing industries with comparative advantages, we can introduce market competition mechanism, granting more autonomy to the enterprises. For some are more likely to become the comparative advantage industries, the government may support them in the key sectors; improve the competitiveness of their domestic production and export. As for the loss of comparative advantage industries, we can eliminate outdated sectors and through the transfer of industries to achieve optimal allocation of resources. The paper also believes that the cultivation of industrial dynamic comparative advantage is not equal to cultivating dynamic comparative advantage industries, but also the advanced elements of the dynamic comparative advantage, we should pay attention to the potential of the key industrial chain and value chain. New dynamic comparative advantage may be a nurture new industry ; there may be the function upgrade on the existing industry. No matter what way, it must be able to take advantage of improving human capital, industrial technology base, supporting conditions ,financial support, and social network elements. In order to foster dynamic comparative advantage,the key is based on a relatively high level of technological innovation and the accumulation of elements,which enter into a higher division level. It is also the process that market power increase with the decrease of excessive competition, and more bargaining power. In addition to the general sense of improving the education level of human capital, loosening restrict labor mobility system of bondage, enhancing the functions of industrial capital. Currently we also should pay attention to building the platform that gathering resources and playing a functional elements. Actively cultivate a large number of professional platform enterprises which have the ability to integrate resources. Implements the elements resources concentration, market information gathering and transactions centralized ; grasp the notion of industry value chain and the initiative. In addition, we must focus on the formation of an effective competitive market structure, improve market power of enterprises, and strive to create the ability to compete with multinational companies. Internally, we should to promote the formation of economic scale and moderate competition. In this process, companies should also be forms of organization, management and control model ,governance structure to adapt to these changes. And more importantly, we should stimulate market forces, break various barriers of industry adjustment, improve the ability of the transform, and reduce the cost of industrial transformation and upgrading. At present, the regional administrative barriers and the industry entry and exit barriers severely hampered the flow of industry resources and reasonable configuration. These raised the invisible costs of the industrial transformation and upgrading. Regional administrative barriers and market segmentation are the major historic challenge because local governments have the great motivation to maintain the status quo. Moreover, this problem is not just the administrative boundaries of jurisdiction and financial issues; the more important is to respect the microscopic main body economic market behavior, reduce the administrative intervention. Let enterprise out the integration of resources, the government need ronment for to create a good environment. in the form of open mode, market-orientated approach to carry to do is in terms of infrastructure, industrial supporting environment for to create a good environment.