区间灰数序列的灰色预测模型构建方法

Grey prediction model for hybrid sequence

研究包含实数、区间灰数的混合型预测问题.首先通过计算灰数层的面积和区间灰数的认知程度,将区间灰数序列转变成实数序列;然后分别预测灰数层的面积和区间灰数的认知程度,推导还原得到区间灰数预测模型;最后通过与现有文献中的实例进行对比,说明了所提出的建模方法在避免区间灰数之间代数运算的情况下,提高了建模精度.

The forecasting problem whose sample data including real number and interval grey number is studied. An interval grey number sequence is converted into a real number sequence by calculating the areas of grey number layers and the cognition of interval grey number. The areas of grey number layers and the cognition of interval grey numbers are predicted respectively. Then the unbiased prediction model of the interval grey number is achieved by deducing and reverting. Comparisons real example from the reference with the unbiased prediction model demonstrates that the unbiased prediction model is more accurate than other models, it is shown that this method is effective and applicable, and can avoid the calculation of interval grey number.