鲁西北生育期降水与小麦产量相关关系回归模型研究

Optimum Regression Model between Rainfall in Wheat Growth Period and Wheat Yield

小麦生育期降水过程复杂多变，不同生育时段降水对小麦生长发育的影响不同。利用相关和逐步回归方法，对小麦生育期44个降水时段的变化及其与产量进行线性和回归分析，确定不同因子与小麦产量的相关关系，建立降水产量预测模型，明确不同降水因子对小麦产量形成的影响。结果表明：播种～越冬前及抽穗开花期的降水是影响冬小麦产量形成的关键降水因子，其中10月上旬降水、11月中旬降水、11月下旬降水及6月上旬降水与产量的偏相关系数均达到了极显著水平。该结论将有利于充分发挥自然降水的作用和进行灾害调控，实现增产。

The precipitation process during wheat growth period is complicated. The precipitation of different growth period has different affection to wheat growth. Through linear and regression analysis of 44 precipitation period＇ changes during wheat growth and wheat yield, to determine the correlation between wheat yield and 44 precipitation factors was determined and corresponding optimum regression models were established. It indicated that the precipi- tations of sowing to winter and anthesis had important influence on wheat yield. The partial correlation coefficient between precipitation of early October, mid-November, late November and early June and wheat yield reached ex- tremely significant level. The precipitation in different periods have different change trend, through regression mod- el, selecting the limiting factors for wheat yield. The natural precipitations of early October, mid-November and late November every increase 1mm ,wheat yield would increase 156.0kg/hm2, 193.5kg/hm2 and 312.0kg/hm2.