合肥市平均气温动态变化的非平稳时序分析

Application of non-stationary time series analysis in dynamic change of average temperature in Hefei city

近100多年来，全球平均气温经历了冷-暖-冷-暖2次波动，总体上为上升趋势。进入20世纪80年代后，全球气温明显上升。1981～1990年全球平均气温比100年前上升了0．48℃，近年来气候变化也有越来越恶劣的趋势。利用时间序列分析建立非平稳时序模型，研究自1985～2009年合肥市平均气温动态变化数据，对合肥市近25年来的气候变化进行分析，通过数据的分析处理，建立拟合函数进行预测，希望对未来合肥市气温变化提供参考。

Nearly 100 years, the global mean temperature experienced two waves as cold-warm-cold-warm, in a rising trend on the whole. In the late 1980＇s, global temperature rose significantly. The average global temperature during the period of 1981-1990 was 0.48℃ higher than that 100 years before. In recent years, the climate has a trend of getting worse. In this paper, a time series analysis was used to set up a non-stationary time series model for studying the dynamic change of average temperature in Hefei city during the period of 1985-2009. As a result, through the analysis the climatic change of the past 25 years in Hefei city, a fitting function was established to forecast the climate of Hefei city in the future