中国的利率调节、信贷指导与经济波动--基于动态随机一般均衡模型的分析

China's Interest Rate Adjustment,Credit Guidance and Economic Fluctuation:Analysis Based on A DSGE Model

本文基于中国基本国情,将两类货币政策调节手段——市场化的利率调节和非市场化的信贷指导——植入基础模型,建立一个新凯恩斯框架下的动态随机一般均衡模型,分析不同货币政策工具对经济和金融部门的影响。研究结果表明:央行通过窗口指导对商业银行施加的信贷控制与常规的公开市场业务一样都能够引导实体经济、平滑经济波动、增加社会福利,且随着央行信贷指导力度的增强其对经济的平滑作用越明显。与此同时,非市场化的调节手段会加剧金融市场利率的扭曲,导致金融中介效率低下。

This paper establishes a New Keynesian DSGE model with interest rate adjustment and credit guid- ance to study how different monetary policy tools affect economic and financial sectors based on Chinese national situation. The findings show that： the credit control used by central bank via window guidance can guide the e- conomy, smooth the economic fluctuation and increase social welfare just like the normal open market opera- tion. And the severer the credit control is, the more obvious the effect is. At the same time, non - market ad- justment means will increase the distortion of interest rate and lead to low efficiency of financial intermediary.