海峡西岸经济区发展差异、成因及趋势分析——基于市际层面的视角

Analysis of Developmental Difference,Causes and Trend in Western Taiwan Straits Economic Zone——Based on the Perspective of the Intercity Level

本文旨在分析海西各地市之间经济发展差异及成因,并研究其发展趋势。在差异分析中,从二元结构阐释城市和农村差距;同时,从行政划分上对比海西中四省之间的差异;另基于市际层面采用变异系数做统计性描述。在此基础上,进一步分析导致这些差异的原因并预测海西经济发展趋势。研究发现:海西经济区存在条件收敛和"俱乐部收敛"双重现象,符合新古典增长理论对经济收敛的预测,并且促进海西经济增长的主要源泉是对外贸易以及人力资本、固定资产投资等其他因素。

This article aims to analyze the developmental differences and the causes in Western Taiwan Straits Economic Zone, to predict the trends of its development. In the variance analysis, the gap between urban and rural is interpreted according to the dual structure. At the same time, a comparison between the four provinces （ Fujian, Zhejiang, Guangdong and Jiangxi ） is made on the administrative division, and a statistical description based on the intercity level is presented. On this basis, it further analyzes the causes of these differences and predicts the economic development trends. The study shows that： there is conditional convergence and ＂ club convergence＂ phenomenon in Western Taiwan Straits Economic Zone, which confirms to the predictions on economic convergence in the neoclassical growth theory, and the main source of this zone＇s economic growth is foreign trade as well as other factors such as human capital, fixed investment.