城市自由落户的地方公共财政压力分析

Local Fiscal Burden on Liberalizing Access to Urban Hukou

文章在诠释市民待遇含义的基础上,根据本地户籍人口与非户籍人口在享受市民待遇上的差别及公共财政需要负担的市民待遇,量化出全国不同区域、不同经济发展水平的45个城市自由落户的财政成本。结果显示,自由落户下城市基本公共服务成本的增加主要取决于外来人口的结构而非外来人口的规模,只简单考虑外来人口总量、忽视外来人口结构的影响会低估自由落户的资金缺口。受地区间公共资源丰度差异大、人口流动极化倾向明显、规范化的财政转移支付尚未形成、市民待遇可携带性差的现实制约,自由落户所需的稳定的地方财政保障是城市自身无法有效破解的难题。城市自由落户的实施亟待建立由顶层主导的"自上而下"的基本公共服务成本分摊机制。

According to the gap between local hukou residents and migrants on obtaining citizenship treatments and public finance burdens to provide such treatments,this paper discusses the meaning of citizenship treatments and estimates the financial costs of liberalizing access to urban hukou based on a sample data of 45 cites with different regions and different economic development levels.The results show that the increase in the costs of one city's public services caused by permitting hukou access is depended heavily on the structure of migrant population,not the size of it.The partial views of considering the size and ignoring the structure of migrant population lead to underestimate the funding gap.Due to the widening public resources gap among different regions,polarization of migration,lack of regular financial transfer and poor portability of residential benefits,it is almost impossible for cities to provide stable local financial inputs to free access.To open urban hukou registration,it is imperative to establish a 'top-to-bottom' mechanism to share the public expenditures caused.