碳排放与经济增长:空间动态效应与EKC再检验

Carbon Emission and Economic Growth: Spatial Dynamic Effect and Re-study on EKC

基于我国2001～2010年的面板数据,构建了空间动态面板误差模型,对碳排放与经济增长之间的关系进行了再研究,并从模型设定、样本容量、宏观波动性、控制变量等多个角度进行了稳健性检验。研究结果表明,碳排放具有显著的空间依赖性和动态效应,且存在EKC拐点,但目前碳排放与经济增长之间的关系仅存在于EKC拐点的左侧,跨过这个拐点的可能性非常小,可能将长期处于近似的线性正相关状态,即经济增长伴随着高碳排放。稳健性分析进一步支持了研究结论的可信性。此外,研究结果还显示",污染物天堂"假说在我国成立。

Based on the data from 2001 to 2010, we construct a spatial dynamic panel error model to re-study the relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth. Then we do a robust test about the estimated model, including the model setting, sam- ple size, macroeconomic fluctuations and control variables. The results show that spatial dynamic effect of CO2 is significant and there is inverted U shaped curve between carbon emissions and economic growth. We find that the turn-point is on the left side of the EKC curve, and the possibility to cross the inflection point is very small, and economic growth will be accompanied by high carbon emis- sions. In addition, the study also finds that ＂Pollutants Haven＂ hypothesis seems to be confirmed in China.