摘要
在光伏发电成本构成解析的基础上,建立了考虑6种基本影响因素的光伏电站发电成本计算模型。设定典型参数,对光伏发电成本随装机成本、日照小时数、运营维护成本等主要参数的变化规律进行了量化分析。建立了光伏发电成本未来趋势预测的学习曲线模型,在分析光伏装机容量与发电成本历史变化的基础上,设定了学习率的3种情景,并预测了对应的光伏发电成本。
Based on the analysis of photovoltaic power generation cost structure,this paper establishes the calculation model considering six basic factors of PV power generation cost.After setting the typical parameters,the paper quantitatively analyzes the change rule of the photovoltaic power generation cost varied with the main parameters,such as PV plant installed cost,sunshine hours,operation and maintenance cost,builds a learning curve model to predict the future trend of the photovoltaic power generation cost.Finally,the paper defines the learning rate of three kinds of situations and predicts the photovoltaic power generation cost corresponding by analyzing the historical changes of photovoltaic power generating cost and installed capacity.
出处
《陕西电力》
2013年第11期17-20,共4页
Shanxi Electric Power
关键词
光伏发电
发电成本
学习曲线
学习率
photovoltaic power generation
generation cost
learning curve
learning rate
