对外贸易差额与货币供给——基于国别面板数据的实证研究

Trade Balance and Money Supply——Empirical Study based on Cross-Country Panel Data

开放经济条件下,不同汇率制度条件下会对一国贸易差额与货币供给之间的关系产生不同的影响。通过构面包含汇率制度虚拟变量在内的面板协整方程,结合1994-2011年中国、日本等23个国家和地区的国别面板数据进行实证分析,研究发现:在实行自由浮动汇率制度下贸易差额对货币供给并不产生影响,而在实行固定汇率制度或者有管理的浮动汇率制度下贸易差额会引起货币供给的同方向变化,即贸易顺差会引起货币供应量的增加,贸易逆差则引起货币供应量的减少。因此,在当前实行人民币有管理的浮动汇率制度下,要适度控制贸易顺差对货币供给的冲击作用,以防范通货膨胀等风险。

Because of different exchange rate system, trade balance and money supply will have differ- ent relationship under the condition of opening economy. Adding exchange rate system as a dummy varia- ble, we establish a panel cointegration equation based on the data of China, Japan and other 23 countries from the year of 1994 to 2011. The result shows that under floating rate system, trade balance has no effect on money supply. But when it comes to fixed exchange rate system or managed floating exchange rate system, trade balance will have positive influence on money supply, which means that the amount of money supply will increase when it is surplus. In order to prevent the risks such as inflation and so on, the impact of trade surplus on money supply should be controlled measurably under the managed floating ex- change rate system.