我国地方国库现金管理运作方式及对货币调控的影响研究

Study on the Operation Model of Cash Management of Local Treasury in China and Its Impact on the Monetary Control

本文以A市2007—2011年国库现金的月度数据为例,利用Miller-Orr模型对地方国库现金最佳持有量、操作方式和收益进行了深入分析。结果表明,如果国库资金较为充裕,则具备由金融机构进行现金管理的基础条件和操作可能。在保证最佳库存现金的前提下对闲置资金进行运作,能够提高资金的使用效率。但这给中央银行货币调控带来一定影响,必须采取建立中央银行与财政部门的分工协调机制及提高国库现金流预测能力等措施。

Based on the monthly treasury cash data of A city form January 2007 to December 2011, this paper deeply analyses the optimal holding amount and the operation model and proceeds of the treasury cash with the model of Miller-Orr. The result shows that if the treasury cash is plentiful and there will be fundamental condition and probabil- ity of treasury cash management by the commercial financial institutions, which will make the cash management more efficient with the use of idle fund under the guarantee of optimal cash holdings. However, that will impact the central bank＇ s monetary control. Therefore, measures in terms of better coordination between the central bank and the finance ministry, improved prediction of treasury cash flow are needed.