考虑积温效应的夏季日最大负荷预测研究

Study on summer daily peak load forecasting considering the accumulation effect of temperature

在夏季持续多日高温情况下,由于积温效应的影响,预测日之前若干天的气温对预测日的最大负荷有着明显影响。据此,在预测模型中考虑积温效应的影响对于改善夏季日最大负荷预测精度有着重要意义。建立了以高温持续期的气温、持续时间及预测日气温为输入、气温修正量为输出的模糊推理系统,对夏季每日的气温进行修正。算例结果表明,该预测方法能很好地跟踪日最大负荷,有效改善负荷预测的精度。

In the case of sustained high temperatures for several days in summer, the temperature of several days before the day to be predicted has a significant impact on the peak load of that day for the accumulation effect of temperature. Therefore, considering this effect in the forecasting model has significant importance to the improvement of forecasting precision of summer daily peak load. A fuzzy reasoning system is built, which takes the temperature of sustained high temperature period, last days and the temperature of forecasting day for inputs and correction amount of temperature for output. The daily temperature in summer is amended by the output of the fuzzy reasoning system. Result of case study shows that the proposed method is capable of tracking the daily peak load and improving the precision of load forecasting.