基于IOWA算子的中国能源消费总量的组合预测

A Combination Forecast for Energy Consumption Based on IOWA Operator

本文利用多元回归模型、指数模型、灰色预测这三种方法分别对我国的能源消费做了预测,然后利用IOWA算子,运用诱导有序加权平均方法,对这三种模型的预测值进行了组合.实证结果显示,基于IOWA算子的组合预测的精度比三种方法各自的精度要高,而且精度比较稳定,达到了预期的水平.在此基础上,运用IOWA算子组合预测了2013年的能源消费总量,以期为相关部门制定能源政策和宏观经济的运行提供有用的参考信息.

This paper makes use of Multiple Regression Model, Exponential Model and Grey Prediction to predict Chinas energy consumption. Then using Induced Ordered Weighted Averaging method to combinate the predictive value of the three models. The empirical results show that the accuracy of prediction based on a combination of IOWA Operator respective higher precision than the three methods,and the accuracy is relatively stable. It achieves the desired level . On this basis, this paper uses the combination forecasting model of IOWA operator to predict the energy consumption of 2013 ,hoping to provide useful reference information for the relevant departments to develop energy and macroeconomic performance policies .