安徽省农村经济增长因子的实证研究

An Empirical Research on Factors Influencing Anhui Agricultural Economic Growth

农业是经济发展和社会稳定的基础,而解决"三农"问题是我国面临的一项长期而艰巨的任务。文章以安徽省1991-2010年农业年度数据和金融机构信贷数据作为研究样本,通过单位根、协整和Granger因果检验研究各个动态变量之间是否存在长期均衡关系和因果关系。研究表明,劳动力数量与农业总产值、粮食产量和农民人均收入之间存在着长期的均衡关系,并且是它们的Granger因果关系;信贷和科技对农村经济的增长还不明显。针对安徽省农村的现状,文章提出了加大信贷和科技的投入,利用地区优势,发展农业多层次、多样化的产业结构,促进安徽农村区域经济更好的发展。

The agricuhure is the foundation of economic development and social stability, and solving the Three Rural issue is a hmg and ardtmns lask for our eountry. This paper makes a study an whether lhere exists a long-run equilibrium and causalion arnong the varicms dynamic variables by using Unit Root, Co integration and Granger causality test according to 1991--2010 agrieuhural yearly data and financial institutions credit data of Anhui Province as the study samples. The re- search shows that Ihere exists a long-run equilibrium relationship between the amount of labor and agricultural output value, grain output and farmers＇ per capita income： and the amount of labor is their Granger causality; while credit and technolo- gy for agrieultural economic growth ix not obvious. Therefore, we propose the countermeasures of increasing the credit and the costs of inputs, making full use of regional advantages, developing agricultural multi-level and diversified industrial structure, in order to promote smoother development of Anhui provincial agricultural economy.