2013—2014年中国宏观经济再展望

China's Economic Outlook in 2013- 2014:Updates

厦门大学"中国季度宏观经济模型(CQMM)"课题组于2013年8月发布了2013年下半年和2014年共六个季度的中国宏观经济主要指标数据的预测报告。报告显示,今年中国GDP增长有望实现7.5%的既定目标,明年GDP增长率可回升至7.79%。2013年全年CPI将上涨2.45%,比上年下降0.19个百分点;到2014年,CPI涨幅可能回落至1.79%,今明两年不存在明显的通货膨胀威胁。课题组模拟了压缩政府非税收入、减轻中小企业或居民的负担,对宏观经济增长以及结构调整的效应。根据预测及政策模拟结果,课题组建议:下半年应重视宏观经济政策的预调、微调,确保全年经济增长目标实现;面对经济增长减速导致的财政收入增速下降,应实行结构性减税,减轻企业负担,释放内部需求潜力;从长远看,应适度降低并控制政府收入占比,建设廉洁、廉价、有限、高效的政府;尽快启动新一轮社会经济体制改革,拓展未来中国经济发展的空间。

On August 18, 2013, the project team of ＂China＇s Quarterly Macroeconomic Model＂ （CQMM） released the forecast of China＇s major macroeconomic indicators for the second half of 2013 and 2014, six quarters in total. The forecas- ting shows that： GDP will grow by 7. 5% in 2013 as expected, then up to 7.79% next year. CPI is expected to rise by 2.45% in 2013, a decline by 0.19% compared with the previous year and in 2014 the CPI may fall to 1.79%. No signifi- cant threat of inflation exists this year and next year. The research team simulated the effects of compressing governmental non-tax revenue, reducing the burden of the small and medium-sized enterprise or the burden of the residents on the macro- economic growth and structural adjustment. According to the prediction and policy simulation results, we suggest that： at- tention should be paid to anticipatory adjustments and micro-adjustments of macroeconomic policies in the second half of the year to ensure the annual economic growth. In face of the decline of growth rate of fiscal revenues caused by ＇the decline of economic growth rate, the government should implement structural tax cuts to ease the burden on enterprises and unleash the potential of domestic demand. In the long run, it is appropriate to reduce and control the proportion of government reve- nue to GDP and build a clean, cheap, limited and efficient government and start a new round of social and economic reform to expand the space of China＇s future economic development as soon as possible.