基于灰色预测的电网基建投资测算模型

Grid Infrastructure Investment Calculation Model Based on Gray Prediction

针对电网基建投资规模所受到的影响因素较多、关系复杂、电网发展需求预测困难的特点,研究了一种基于灰色预测的电网基建投资测算模型。首先通过分析与电网建设相关指标与电网基建投资之间的关系,建立了能够科学反映电网建设发展需求的电网基建投资测算指标体系。然后,利用灰色理论建立指标的预测模型,以准确预测测算指标发展趋势;利用层次分析法确定测算指标变化对电网基建投资的影响量;最后在指标预测值和确定的指标-投资影响量的基础上,建立了电网基建投资测算模型。通过对某地区的电网基建投资测算实例验证了该模型的有效性和合理性。该模型对于电网基建投资的协调和合理、科学地规划电网基建投资规模具有极其重要的理论及实际意义。

How to calculate grid infrastructure investment to meet the social, economic development needs and enhance investment efficiency. Grid investment calculation has gradually become the urgent problem faced by the grid corporation. Grid infrastructure investment calculation is difficult, due to influences with many factors, complex relationships and difficulty of grid development demand forecasting. This paper studies a grid infrastructure investment calculation model based on gray prediction. Firstly, an indicator system for grid infrastructure investment calculation is built by analyzing the relationship between indicators and grid infrastructure investment. Secondly, a gray model based indicator prediction model is built to predict the development trend of indicators which are closely related to grid infrastructure; the analytic hierarchy process （AHP） is used to determine each index change impact on investment; the amount of grid infrastructure investment is calculated by using the indicators predictive value and determine indicators,. Finally, the validity and rationality of the proposed calculation model are verified by the example of a grid infrastructure investment calculation. The proposed calculation model is extremely important theoretical and practical significance for the coordination of grid infrastructure investment and planning the scale of investment.