辽宁春季界限温度发生日期的预报方法研究

Forecast Method Study on Spring Critical Temperature Appear Date in Liaoning Province

为了在春季气候预测工作中,尽可能准确地预测辽宁春季稳定通过5℃的日期,采用1961—2010年辽宁省53站逐日气温资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析的月平均位势高度场、海平面气压场资料以及由NOAA重构的月平均海温场资料,通过相关分析方法并开展物理因子的普查工作,寻找辽宁春季稳定通过5℃日期的影响因子,并利用多元线性回归方法建立预报方程。结果表明:1961—2010年辽宁春季气温稳定通过5℃日期随时间有提前出现的趋势;稳定通过5℃日期与2月北大西洋海温、1月西北太平洋海温、2月北极涛动、1月印度洋海温、10月阿留申低压强度和1月北大西洋涛动关系密切;建立的预报稳定通过5℃日期的多元线性回归方程具有显著意义。

In order to predict the date on which the temperatures above 5℃ stably as accurately as possible in the spring climatic prediction business, based on the daily mean temperature data of 53 observational stations in Liaoning during 1961 to 2010, and NCEP/NCAR monthly mean reanalysis data, and monthly mean SST data reconstructed by NOAA, the author sought the influential factors of the dates on which the temperatures above 5℃ stably in the spring in Liaoning Province by correlation analysis method and detailed general survey of physical factors. Meanwhile, the author established the prediction equation by multiple linear regression method. Results showed that： the date of the temperature above 5℃ stably in the spring in Liaoning Province appeared earlier and earlier during 1961 to 2010. The influential factors included February North Atlantic SST, January Northwest Pacific SST, February AO, January Indian Ocean SST, October Aleutian low strength and January NAO. The prediction equation had significant meaning.