高炉煤气发生量时间序列预测模型的开发

Development of Time Series Prediction Model for BF Gas Output

采用时间序列预测模型建模方法,包括时间序列模型阶次判定、参数估计、模型检验,对莱钢高炉煤气总发生量进行预测。结果表明,模型预测准确,平均误差为1.874 8%,对煤气发生量的短期趋势预报有一定参考价值,能够为制定合理的煤气使用计划提供依据,可提高钢铁企业节能降耗水平。

By using time series prediction modeling methods, including time series model order determination, parameter estimation, model checking, the total BFG output of Laiwu Steel was predicted. The result showed that the model predicts accurately, the average error is 1.874 8%, it has the certain reference value to the short-term trend forecasting of gas volume, it can provide scientific guidance for efficient utilization of the BFG and improve saving energy and consumption reduction level in steel enterprise.