银川地区配电网负荷特性分析及预测

Analysis and forecast for load characteristic of distribution network in Yinchuan area

针对银川城市建设快速发展的需求,在分析了银川配电网历史负荷特性的基础上,运用数学模型、借助专业软件,对银川地区"十二五"期间配电网负荷、电量进行了预测,并对未来电力市场发展方向做出判断。分析结果表明:"十二五"期间,银川地区电力负荷呈现快速发展趋势,峰谷差逐年增加,最大负荷出现在冬季的特征在较长一段时间内不会改变。

Aiming at the evolutive demand of city building in Yinchuan, based on power grid histori- cal load characteristic, using mathmatical model speciality software, forecasts distribution network load of ＇ No. 12 five-year plan＇ in Yinchuan, and puts forward estimation for futurity power market de- velopment direction. The analysis result shows that in the period of ＇No. 12 five-year plan＇ the power load of Yinchuan area take on speediness growing trend, the peak valley difference increase year after year, the characteristic of peak load appearing in winter does not change for a long time.