基于灰色系统理论的引信储存可靠性预测模型

Fuze Storage Reliability Prediction Model Based on Grey Theory

针对当前引信储存可靠性预测模型适用范围小、计算较为复杂、预测精度差、需大量数据训练等不足,引入灰色系统理论模型进行储存可靠性预测。该模型以部分信息未知的"小样本"、"贫信息"不确定性系统为研究对象,通过对实测数值进行累加运算,淡化其随机性误差影响,再以微分方程进行建模,提高模型精度,最终通过对模型值的还原,求得预测值。实例表明,该模型可以实现对可靠性变化的准确描述,符合引信产品特点及质量变化规律,同时使用便捷,预测结果精度较高,可以较为准确地判断库存引信的质量状况及可靠性变化趋势,为生产厂家、使用部队提供相关辅助决策信息。

Aiming at the current fuze storage reliability prediction model is of a small applicable range, complex calculation, poor prediction accuracy, requiring large amounts of data such as lack of training, this paper intro- duced the gray system theory model in fuze storage reliability prediction. This model focused on unknown ＂small sample＂, ＂poor information＂ uncertainty system, the measured values accumulate operations was carried out , the impact of its random error was diluted, then, the accuracy of the model was improved by differential equa- tions, finally, the value of the model was obtained through the reduction of predicted values. Examples showed that the model could achieve an accurate description of changes in reliability, which is in conformity with fuze production features and quality variation, and its prediction accuracy was high.