渤海湾海底隧道运营风险评估分析

Risk assessment on Bohai Bay subsea tunnel in its operational period

特长海底隧道运营是一个极其复杂的系统工程,存在较大的不确定性和安全风险。根据隧道工程运营期风险评估的一般流程,对渤海湾海底隧道工程在其运营期的风险进行了评估。评估中考虑的主要风险因素有水害、衬砌裂损、冻害、衬砌腐蚀、震害、洞内空气污染、火灾和列车脱轨事故8种类型。综合运用信心指数法和层次分析法,参照隧道与地下工程风险接受准则和风险等级标准,对渤海湾海底隧道运营期间的风险进行估计与评价。给出了该海底隧道运营期的风险等级,并讨论了本评估工作中尚存在的一些问题和今后有待深入的工作。

The operation of super-long subsea tunnel is a extremly complex system project,has larger un-certainty and safety risk. The procedure of risk assessment was explained in detail,and its application on Bohai Bay subsea tunnel project was proposed as a case study in this paper. Firstly,lots of different risk factors of the subsea tunnel operation were identified systematically,which involved water damage,tunnel lining crack,tun-nel freezing,tunnel lining corrosion,tunnel earthquake disaster,the air pollution inside the cave,tunnel fire and the train derailment accident. Then,those operational risks were analyzed and assessed by the confidence in-dex method and analytic hierarchy process,and were classified and discussed gradually according to the risk ac-ceptance criterion. Finally,some topics about risk assessment on the subsea tunnel operational risk needed to the further research were high-lighted here.