基于灰色理论的昆明市商品房价格预测与分析

Forecast and Analysis of the Price of Commercial Housing in Kunming City Based on the Gray Theory

根据昆明市2007—2011年的统计数据,运用灰色系统预测模型对昆明市商品房价格进行预测,并利用灰色关联度分析方法对昆明市商品房价格影响因素进行分析。结果表明:未来四年昆明市商品房价格将呈上涨趋势,城镇居民人均可支配收入是影响昆明市商品房价格的首要因素。

Based on the statistics of Kunming city from 2007 to 2011, the price of commercial housing in Kunming is predicted with the grey system forecasting mode, and the main limited factors of residential price are analyzed by means of gray correlation a- nalysis. The results show that the commercial housing price in Kunming would keep rising in the next. five year and the primary fac- tor affecting residential price in Kunming is the urban per capita annual disposable income.