摘要
Based on the theory of system dynamics,the paper analyzes the mechanism of socio-economic benefits of highway projects and establishes the system dynamics model of regional economic-highway development. Then taking Jinji(Tianjin—Jixian) Highway of Tianjin as an example,the errors of system simulation are tested,and the system dynamics model built is verified to be quite stable,which has a high performance. Through the comparison of simulation results with and without Jinji Highway,the paper simulates and predicts the socio-economic benefit of each year from 2003 to 2013. Thus the quantification evaluation of socio-economic benefit of highway project is realized and will provide the theory instructions for similar projects in the future.
Based on the theory of system dynamics, the paper analyzes the mechanism of socio-economic benefits of highway projects and establishes the system dynamics model of regional economic-highway development. Then taking Jinji（Tianjin--Jixian） Highway of Tianjin as an example, the errors of system simulation are tested, and the system dynamics model built is verified to be quite stable, which has a high performance. Through the comparison of simulation results with and without Jinji Highway, the paper simulates and predicts the socio-economie benefit of each year from 2003 to 2013. Thus the quantification evaluation of socio-economic benefit of highway project is realized and will provide the theory instructions for similar projects in the future.
基金
Technology Plan Projects of Tianjin Planning Bureau(No.2010H3-0011)
