广州市轨道交通客流特征分析

Rail Transit Passenger Flow Characteristics in Guangzhou

科学合理的预测轨道交通客流状况已成为轨道交通系统决策中面临的重大课题,需要在实践中不断积累、完善和提高。根据广州市轨道交通运营资料,从网络、线路、车站三个层面探讨轨道交通从单线向网络转变过程中的客流特征和成长规律,为客流预测模型的参数选择提供参考。分析发现:随着轨道交通网络的扩展,客运强度边际效应递减、换乘系数增大、平均运距增长;从线到网,换乘客流成为客流增长的主要来源;不同类型车站的客流特征差异较大,预测时应分类考虑。

Rail transit passenger flow forecasting has become one of the major tasks during rail transit system decision making and deserves continuous improvement in practice. Based on the rail transit operation data in Guangzhou, this paper analyzes the passenger flow characteristics and increasing trends during the development of rail transit from a single line to network in three aspects： network, lines and stations so as to provide reference for calibrating passenger flow forecasting models.The results show that： 1） With the expansion of urban rail transit network, the marginal effect of passenger demand is diminishing while the transfer rate and the average travel distance are increasing; 2） Transfer passenger flows become the main source contributing to passenger flow growth from a single line to network; and 3） Different types of stations have quite different passenger flow characteristics deserving respective consideration in forecasting.