信用对服务业增长的影响:理论探讨与经验研究

The Impact of Credit on the Growth of Services Sectors: Theoretical Investigation and Empirical Research

本文首先通过超边际分析对信用促进服务业发展的机制进行形式化证明,然后利用包括32个OECD经济体与90个非OECD经济体在内的共122个国家或地区1997-2011年的数据,运用静态面板固定效应模型和动态面板FD-GMM估计方法,并按照全部样本、OECD样本与非OECD样本的类型进行经验研究,最后审查了研究结论在中国的适用性。结果发现:静态面板模型下,信用水平与服务业增长率显著正相关,这一结论对全部样本、OECD样本、非OECD样本都成立;动态面板模型下,信用对服务业增长的促进作用在全部样本与非OECD样本中仍显著,但是在OECD样本中不显著;信用推动服务业增长的边际生产力随着信用存量的增加而递减;信用是推动我国服务业增长的重要因素,且其边际生产力较高。

This paper firstly proves that credit promotes the development of the service sector by employing infra-marginal analysis of its mechanism. The data which covers the samples of 122 countries or regions totally,including 32 OECD economies and 90 non-OECD economies during year 1997 to 2011 are collected and empirically studied by applying the static panel fixed effects models and the dynamic panel models to the three categories of economies,i. e. all samples,the OECD sample and non-OECD sample,respectively. Finally,the applicability of the above conclusion in China is scrutinized. The results shows that： in the static panel models,the level of credit and services growth rate are significantly and positively related for all samples,the OECD samples and the non-OECD samples; in dynamic panel models,the role of credit in promoting the service sectors growth is still significant for all samples and non-OECD samples,but not significant for the OECD samples; the marginal productivity of credit in promoting the services sector growth decreases with the increase in the stock of credit; credit is an important factor in promoting China＇s service sector growth,and its marginal productivity is higher than the averages of the three types of economies.