中国对外直接投资与经济发展的关系研究

A Research on the Relationship Between China's Outward Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Development

本文选用1990-2010年对外直接投资相关数据,基于邓宁的投资发展路径(IDP)理论,实证检验了17个主要发展中国家和中国的投资发展阶段,发现:我国的对外投资路径呈U型结构,符合IDP理论路径,但发展中国家整体上并不遵循IDP理论;我国对外直接投资阶段滞后于经济发展水平。本文还对中国OFDI与经济发展水平之间进行了协整检验,结论是:中国OFDI与经济发展水平之间存在长期均衡关系,长期来看,中国经济发展水平是OFDI的Granger原因,而OFDI对于经济发展水平并没有表现出长期的均衡关系;从短期来看,OFDI与经济发展水平之间的相关性不显著。本文提出了相关政策建议。

Based on Dunning＇s investment development path,this study makes an empirical analysis of 17 developing countries＇ and china＇s foreign direct investment development path respectively. We find no empirical support for the IDP concept in the developing countries case,but find support in china＇s case that China is in stage 3 and its foreign direct investment is lagging behind in economic development. Be further,there exists long-run equilibrium relation between china＇s OFDI and economic development. In the long run,economic development is the Granger cause for OFDI,but OFDI is not the Granger cause for economic development. In the short term,no significant correlation between OFDI and economic development. Lastly,the lack of investment efficiency is indicated and some recommendations are proposed.