我国的政府教育支出与经济增长——基于1980-2011年的数据分析

The Impact of Government Education Expenditures on Economic Growth in China——The Analysis based on the Data from 1980 to 2011

对于政府教育支出与经济增长的关系实证研究并没有确定的结论。本文利用我国1980-2011年的时间序列数据分析了政府教育支出对经济增长的影响。实证研究表明,无论是在长期还是短期内政府教育支出都对经济增长具有正的显著的影响,即我国的政府教育支出能够促进经济增长。Granger因果检验表明,我国的政府教育支出与经济增长之间存在双向因果关系。另外,长期中政府教育支出对经济增长的影响效果大于短期。这说明政府教育支出对经济增长的影响是个长期的累积过程,因而教育投入不应该是一种短期行为。目前我国政府的教育支出仍处于相对较低的水平,具有较大的提升空间,从而具有推动经济增长的巨大潜力。因此,为保持经济的持续增长,在近期和长期内不断加大政府对教育的投入、优化教育资源的配置应是一项极其重要的教育政策。

Does education promote economic growth？ Empirical evidence is not conclusive on this question. This paper uses time-series technique to investigate the relationship between government education expenditure per worker and economic growth in China during the period 1980-2011. The empirical results show that education expenditure per worker has a positive and signifi-cant impact on economic growth both in the long run and short run. Government education expenditure can promote economic growth. According to the results of Granger casualty tests, we can observe bidirectional causation between government education expenditure and economic growth. The effect of long-term government education expenditure on economic growth is greater than the short-term one. This shows the effect of long-term government education expenditure on economic growth is a long-term pro-cess of accumulation, and government education expenditure should not be a short-term behavior. At present government educa-tion expenditure of China is still at a relatively low level, so it has a large promotion space, which has a great potential to pro-mote economic growth. In order to maintain sustained economic growth , it should be a very important education policy to increase government education expenditure and optimize the allocation of educational resources in the short term and long term.