大型复杂项目研制成本的灰色预算方法

Cost Budgeting Method for Large,Complex Projects Based on Gray Theory

针对大型复杂项目成本因历史数据缺乏而难以准确预算的问题,提出大型复杂项目研制成本的灰色预算方法,通过项目研制成本模型构建及其残差修正,实现利用较少的样本数据得到较高的成本预算精度,并采用实例验证了方法的正确性和有效性。

Our country large, complex projects have little sample and the traditional method can not estimate the project cost accurately, so this paper propose a large, complex project cost estimation method based on gray systematic theory. We divide large, complex project into systems or parts and regard them as cost estimation unit. The gray forecasting model GM （1, 1 ） was set up based on historical cost data of the cost estimation unit. If the model＇ s precision doesn＇ t meet with the requirement of aviation project cost estimation, the revision model GM （ 1, 1 ） must be set up to raise the estimation precision The experimental results show the method can get the more high - accuracy estimation value using the litdc sample and is suitable for the cost estimation of the our country large, complex projects.