结构优化过程中合意发展速度的识别与辨析:历程与评价

Identification and Analysis of Desirable Development Pace during Structural Optimizing Process:Course and Evaluation

不同经济发展阶段有不同的结构特征,并从各方面作用于供求,最终影响该阶段的经济发展速度。前工业化阶段,经济增速微乎其微;工业化阶段,经济增速和结构变化一样迅速而持久;后工业化阶段,供求的不匹配及其动态调适使得合意发展速度下降并充满变数。新中国成立以来60多年的工业化历程亦表明,凡有利于结构红利释放的发展阶段及结构变化过程,将提高合意发展速度。在今后一个相对长的时期内,我国可能将进入合意增长率下降的结构性减速发展阶段,但是新的结构红利效应潜力依然巨大。

Different stages of economic development have different structural characteristics and play different roles in all aspects of supply and demand, which ultimately affect the pace of economic development at each stage. At the pre-industrialization stage, the economic growth is minimal; at the industrialization stage, economic growth is faster and lasting as the structural changes; while at the postindustrialization stage, the mismatch of supply and demand and the dynamic adjustment make the desired growth rate decline and highly variable. The 60 year industrization course since the founding of New China also shows that whenever the development stage and the structural change are con- ducive to the release of the structural bonus, the desirable pace of development will be increased. In a relatively long future period, China may enter a lower structural development stage with decreased desirable deceleration rate, but the potential effect of the new structural bonus is still great.