基于复制理论的混凝土坝裂缝开度预测

Forecasting of Concrete Dam Cracking Opening Based on Copy Theory

长久运行的水库混凝土坝,裂缝开度受环境影响稳定,时效影响较小,测值序列存在一定的规律性.针对这一现象,提出了基于复制理论,对大坝原型裂缝监测资料进行分析的方法.通过对测值时间序列的分解,以及对分解后子序列的拟合、还原和重构等步骤,实现了对原始序列的拟合和预测.以陈村大坝某裂缝测点测值为例,运用该方法进行了拟合和预测,效果良好,从而证明了此方法的有效性和可应用性.

The cracking on the long running concrete dam is affected by the environment stably but barely by aging;and there is some certain regularity among the monitoring data.Considering this fact,the method based on copy theory is adopted to analyze the dam cracking monitoring data.The data are able to be fitted and forecasted by resolving the original data series;and then fitting,restoring and reconstructing the resolved data.Taking the cracking data of a certain measuring point in Chencun dam for example,the fitting and forecasting results show a good effect,so as to prove the effectiveness and the applicability of the method.