中国城镇化与内需增长的互动关系——基于1978―2011年数据的VAR模型分析

Dynamic relationship between urbanization and domestic demand growth: Based on the VAR Model analysis of data from 1978 to 2011

采用1978—2011年的时间序列数据,在构建VAR模型的基础上运用脉冲响应函数和预测方差分解技术对中国城镇化与内需增长之间的动态相互作用关系进行实证分析。结果显示,城镇化与内需增长之间的相互促进效应明显,城镇化战略不仅有助于扩大内需水平,更有助于内需结构的调整;投资增长和消费增长都有助于城镇化进程的加速,其中消费增长对城镇化的推动效应更显著。其政策含义是在推进城镇化进程中要坚持"以人为本",把提高居民消费水平放在首位,对投资加以积极引导,充分发挥城镇化的内需扩大效应和内需调整效应。

By constructing the VAR model, we analyze the dynamic relationship of urbanization development and domestic demand growth. The results show that urbanization development and demand growth promote each other. The development of urbanization helps to expand domestic demand and adjust the structure of domestic demand. Besides, the growth of investment and consumption both contribute to the acceleration of urbanization process, while the growth of consumption＇s contribution is more significant.