基于索洛余值法的湖南经济增长要素贡献分析

Analysis of factors' contribution to Hunan economic growth based on Solow residual method

以C-D生产函数为基础设定模型,利用索洛余值增长速度方程,通过Eviews6软件对1978―2011年湖南省经济增长指标进行测算。结果表明,截至2011年,在影响湖南省经济增长的各贡献要素中,技术进步贡献率占比63.85%,资本贡献率占比15.72%,劳动贡献率占比13.61%;在1978—2011年间,湖南省经济增长的技术进步贡献率呈快速上升趋势,而资本贡献率变化不明显,劳动贡献率则逐年下降。因此,湖南要促进经济增长应进一步提高劳动者素质,加大人力资源的开发力度;注重资源的开发与引进,发挥资本的后劲优势;提升各个产业的技术附加值;以及加强各个投入要素之间的联动性。

Taking the C-D production fimction as the basic set model, this paper uses Eviews6 software to measure economic growth indicators of Hunan Province in 1978-2011 by the Solow residual value growth rate equation. The results show that, till 2011, among various contribution elements affecting the economic growth of Hunan province, technological progress contribution rate accounted for 63.85%, capital contribution rate accounted for 15.72%, and labor contribution rates accounted for 13.61%.Moreover,technical progress contribution rate to economic growth of Hunan province is in rapidly rising trend from 1978 to 2011, while labor contribution rates is declining year by year, and the change of capital contribution rate is not obvious. It is necessary to further improve the quality of the laborers and strengthen human resources development; to pay attention to the development and introduction of resources and give full play to the advantages of the power of capital; to increase the industry＇s added value and strengthen the correlation among various inputs.