贸易开放、城市化发展和二氧化碳排放——基于中国城市面板数据的边限协整检验分析

Openness to Trade,Urbanization and Carbon Dioxide Emissions——Based on Panel Data of China's Urban Bound Co- integration Analysis

分析城市化进程、贸易开放程度对中国城市二氧化碳排放的动态影响特征，对于中国调整城市增长方式，实现城市可持续发展，降低二氧化碳排放都具有重要的理论意义和实践价值。利用中国32个城市1999～2011年的相关数据，通过构建面板协整模型，分析和检验中国城市化水平以及对外贸易发展水平对其二氧化碳排放的影响。研究结果表明：从长期来看，城市能源消耗增加100％，将导致城市二氧化碳排放量增加117.1％；二氧化碳排放的贸易开放度弹性为-0.151，表明城市对外贸易总额增加100％，导致其二氧化碳排放量将减少15.1％。但从估计结果也可以看到，城市人均GDP水平、城市化水平对城市二氧化碳排放的影响并不显著。从短期和长期来看，能源消费对二氧化碳排放有显著的积极作用，即中国城市经济发展过程中为了经济发展而扩张的工业产出，直接消耗了更多的能源，从而给环境带来更多的压力、将导致更多的排放。因此，必须对能源消费采取某种控制以减少城市污染。

The process of urbanization , trade openness on Chinese urban dynamic effects of carbon dioxide e-missions characteristics , how to adjust for Chinese urban growth , improve urban sustainable development , reduce carbon dioxide emissions China has important theoretical significance and practical value.In this paper , China 32 cities in 1999~2011 years of relevant data , by building panel cointegration model , analyze and test the level of ur-banization in China as well as the city ’ s foreign trade their carbon impact.This research found that： In the long run, a 100%increase urban energy consumption will lead to long -term urban carbon dioxide emissions increased 117.1%.Trade liberalization on carbon dioxide emissions elasticity is -0.151 , which indicates that the city ’ s foreign trade increased by 100%, then the city will reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 15.1%.However , the esti-mated results can also be seen , the city’ s per capita GDP level and the level of urbanization and urban impact of carbon dioxide emissions is not significant.The short and long term , energy consumption on carbon dioxide emis-sions have a significant positive impact , which means that Chinese urban economic development process in order to expand the economic development of industrial output and consume more energy , to bring more pressure will lead to more emissions, so it is necessary to take some control of energy consumption for urban pollution action.