中国与北美自贸区成员国贸易流量关系研究——基于生产和贸易视角的分析

Study on the Relationship of Trade Inflows between China and NAFTA——Based on Analysis of Production and Trade Respects.

区域经济一体化组织内部分工产生的贸易效应和生产效应会影响成员国的对外贸易。通过计量模型就北美自贸区贸易效应和生产效应对成员国贸易流量的影响及中国与北美自贸区成员国之间贸易流量的影响因素进行实证分析,结果表明,经济规模是影响中国与北美自贸区成员国贸易流量的主要因素,中国经济规模的扩大可以增加与北美自贸区成员国进出口额;北美自贸区成员国经济规模扩大可以增加从中国的进口,但对中国出口的促进作用不确定。一体化内部分工带来的贸易效应加快了北美自贸区成员国之间的贸易发展,但对成员国与中国双边贸易发展影响不大;而生产效应对成员国间贸易推进及其与中国双边贸易扩大均有促进作用,且这种作用主要体现在长期。此外,人民币对美元汇率的升值对中国进口贸易起到积极的推动作用。

The internal division of member countries in regional economic integration emerging trade effects and production effects play an important part in foreign trade of member countries.This paper analysis how trade effects in NAFTA affect trade flows between member countries as well as what factors determinant trade flow between China and NAFTA using econometric model.The result shows that economic scale has a significant influence in trade flows between China and NAFTA.On one hand , the larger economy of scale in China , the more trade flows be-tween China and NAFTA.On the other hand , the larger economy of scale in member countries , the more import volume from China.Trade effects in the internal division of regional integration accelerate trade development be-tween NAFTA member countries;however , it has little impact on development of trade between China and NAFTA.Production effects promote trade relationship not only for member countries but also for China and NAFTA.In addi-tion, the RMB against the U.S.dollar appreciation plays a positive role in promoting China ’ s import trade.