1954—2009年窟野河流域降水与径流变化趋势分析

Analysis on Precipitation and Runoff Changing Trend from 1954 to 2009 in Kuye River Basin

通过窟野河流域温家川水文站流量实测数据及神木气象站降水观测数据,运用累计距平法、R/S法、Mann-Kendall趋势检验法分析1954-2009年间温家川水文站以上窟野河流域降水与径流的年内、年际变化特征。结果表明,窟野河流域汛期降水量和径流量分别占全年降水量和径流量的76.6%和59.19%。20世纪50年代至90年代,径流变化过程基本与降水过程一致,但到21世纪初期,径流量出现明显下降趋势,截止到2009年,径流量已减小到1.25×108m3。从季节分配上来看,春、夏、秋三季的降水量呈微弱的降低趋势,而冬季降水却以0.04mm/a的趋势递增。通过对1975-2009年的煤炭开采与径流量的相关关系分析表明,虽然在这期间降水量没有明显的衰减,但是窟野河年径流量从20世纪末开始就出现了明显的减少,这主要是煤炭大规模开采等人类工程活动引发的后果。

Based on water flow data at Wenjiachuan hydrological station and precipitation data at Shenmu meteorological state in Kuye river basin, the paper makes a research on the annual and seasonal variation trend of Precipitation and Runoff in Kuye river basin from 1954 to 2009 by using accumulated variance analysis, R/S method and Mann - Kendall trend method. The result shows that precipitation and streamflood in flood season account for 76.6% and 59.19% of annual precipitation and streamflood respectively. Changes of streamflow is consistence with those of precipitation from 1950s to 1990s, however, the streamflow decreased slowly in 21th century and streamflow has reduced to 1.25 × 10^8 m3 by 2009. Precipitation in spring, summer and winter decreases slowly and in winter increases by 0.04 mm/a. The analysis of coal mining and streamflow from 1975 to 2009 shows that precipitation didn＇ t decrease sharply in this period. However, the streamflow of Kuye river decreases significantly at the end of the 20th century. The paper get the conclusion that reduction of streamflow of Kuye river is because of large - scale coal exploration.