河南省需水量预测方法研究与应用

Research and Application of Water Demand Forecasting Method of Henan Province

针对目前众多需水量的预测方法,重点介绍了回归分析法和GM(1,1)方法的运用及存在的误差,并针对这些误差提出了用权重来修正2种模型预测结果,即对2种方法的预测结果进行加权计算,来进一步降低误差,提高预测精度。然后,对河南省需水量进行了实例计算,通过误差分析表明,加权之后的预测结果误差与2种方法相比大大降低,预测效果良好,最后对河南省未来年份2015、2020、2025年各主要行业需水量进行了预测。

Among multiple water demand forecasting methods,this paper gives an introduction to regression analysis and GM （1,1） method,as well as the existing problems.Aiming at those errors,weighted correction was put forward to correct forecasting results of the two models.The water demand in Henan Province was calculated,through error analysis,it was indicated that the error of weighted forecasting results decreased dramatically compared with the above two methods,the forecasting affect was good.Finally,water demand of each main industry in 2015,2020 and 2025 in Henan Province was forecasted.