消费拉动与环境约束下的畜牧业生产结构调整研究

Production Structure Adjustment of Animal Husbandry Based on Animal Product Consumption Structure and Environmental and Resource Restriction

改革开放以来,我国食物消费模式发了变化,在市场需求导向下,畜牧业迅猛发展,与此同时也产生了环境污染、生态破坏等一系列问题。因此,依据市场需求和资源环境约束,优化调整畜牧业生产结构是实现现代畜牧业的可持续良性发展的重要途径。该研究以山西省为例,建立了扩展线性支出系统模型,分析了山西省畜产品消费的需求收入弹性,并在综合考虑消费拉动和环境约束的条件下,利用灰色关联模型测算出各类养殖业(生猪、奶牛、肉牛、蛋鸡和肉鸡)关联度,从而确定其发展优先次序。结果表明:考虑到资源环境禀赋的边界,当各类畜禽养殖业发展的总体水平在区域环境承载力内时,应优先大力发展奶业,稳定生猪生产,巩固肉牛生产,实行"节粮型"与"精料型"畜牧业并重的方针;当各养殖业发展的总体水平已经超出了区域环境承载力时,则应优先发展肉鸡、蛋鸡,适度发展生猪、肉牛和奶牛,实行"环保型"与"生态型"畜牧业并重的方针。

The food consumption mode of Chinese people is in the key period of transition.Animal husbandry has developed rapidly as well under the guidance of market-orientation,which causes a cascade of environmental problems.Production structure optimization and adjustment of animal husbandry based on animal product consumption structure and environmental and resource restriction is an important way to realize sustainable development.ELES model for animal product consumption and grey correlation model were established and analysis in this paper.Results show that if the total production quantity of animal husbandry is lcss than the regional environmental carrying capacity,the priority should be given to the development of dairy industry.If the total production quantity of animal husbandry has exceeded the regional environmental carrying capacity,the priority should be given to the development of poultry industry.