基于动态历史环境数据的产品剩余寿命预测方法研究

STUDY ON THE RESIDUAL LIFE PREDICTION METHOD BASED ON DYNAMIC HISTORY ENVIRONMENT DATA

产品的实际工作环境一般是动态变化的,而传统寿命预测方法忽略环境应力的随机可变性,假设工作环境应力是恒定不变的静态应力,这与工程实际不相符合。随着科学技术的发展,大多数产品都具有自动采集工作环境协变量信息的功能,因此,结合产品历史环境协变量信息与产品现场工作失效数据,对产品工作的剩余寿命预测的结果更为准确可信。通过对动态历史环境数据进行建模,结合累积损伤模型,给出基于动态环境协变量的产品剩余寿命预测的一般方法,最后通过仿真实例验证方法的可行性。

The actual operating environment of product is always dynamic in general, traditional life prediction methods ignore the random variability of environment stresses, and assume that the environment stresses are constant over time, it is not match with engineering practice. With the development of modern technological, most products being produced with automatic data-collecting devices that can collect environment covariate information, such as temperature, voltage, operation mode, etc. Therefore, the result of the residual life prediction through combination production history environment covariate information and the field failure data would be more accurate and credible. By modeling the dynamic history of environment data, and combine with the cumulative exposure model, the general method of residual life prediction based on the dynamic environment covariates is given in this paper, finally, the feasibility the method is illustrated through a simulation example.