摘要
本文针对对有水位资料,但没有流量观测的流域,同时又有历史罕见洪水记载、流域断面洪水警戒水位和自动站记载的近年几次小洪水过程,采用统计分析方法确定雨-洪关系,得到致灾临界雨量;再应用淹没模型拟洪水淹没情况,得到洪水的懈险等级评估。通过对历史特大山洪个例的淹没反演,可以看到数理统计与淹没模型相结合的方法确定的山洪风险等级,与实际情况基本相符。由于洪水记载和考察资料,往往对洪水淹没的高度记录准确,而对发生的具体时间通常是模糊的,本文得到的临界雨量指标是否能够预见洪水需要实例检验。通过2012年前汛期强降水过程的检验,虽然预警了低风险洪水事件,但是风险发生时间有差异,经过合理调整低风险临界雨量,满足了能够预见洪水的目的。对于其他等级的临界雨量的检验,有特于日后更多的实例,进行合理的调整,逐步完善翠江流域的山洪临界雨量指标。
This paper focuses on critical hazard rainfall of valleys that only has water level records but no water flow records. After statistically analysing the water stage data and the rainfall data during floods of recent years, this paper gets the relationship between rainfall and floods. With this relationship and water level records of historical floods, the critical hazard rainfall of valleys is obtained. Furthermore, this paper estimates the risk levels of each critical rainfall by simulating submergence with submergence model. By contrasting the simulated result to history records of some serious floods, the rainfall threshold got from statistic is proved to be reasonable. Due to the clear submerging depth and blurry occurrence time of flood records, the rainfall threshold obtained still needs to be verified. Although the occurring time of the estimated hazards disaccords with reality, the low-level risk rainfall threshold got verified in rainy season of 2012. It can be used to predict a low-risk rainfall flood by lowering the risk critical rainfall reasonably. For other levels of risk rainfall, verification is very necessary once new flood examples are collected.
出处
《气象》
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第12期1642-1648,共7页
Meteorological Monthly
基金
中国气象局应急减灾与公共服务司<气象灾害风险评估业务试点>项目
福建省气象科学研究课题<福建省暴雨山洪灾害风险评估>共同资助
关键词
山洪
临界雨量
雨-洪关系
淹没模型
flash floods, rainfall threshold value, rainfall-flood relationship, flood model