基于风险区划的农业干旱保险费率厘定——以河北省冬麦区为例

Agricultural Drought Premium Ratemaking Based on Risk Zoning for Winter Wheat Region in Hebei Province

近年来,在气候变化和极端天气气候事件频发的背景下,干旱等农业气象灾害的频发已对我国尤其是河北省的粮食生产和农业发展的可持续性带来了严重威胁。选择或构建合适的农业干旱灾害风险指标开展干旱风险区划,并在此基础上进行灾害的保险费率厘定对于丰富农业保险模式,促进农业保险经营的稳定和发展具有重要的应用价值。本文基于作物水分亏缺率指数、降水距平百分率指数和抗旱指数等指标,构建干旱综合风险指数并开展风险区划研究;利用修正后的纯保险费率,得到适用于本研究区的保险费率厘定模型,探寻一种能较全面改善目前农业保险经营弊端的保险模式,从而实现冬小麦农业保险的持续健康发展。

In recent years, in the context of climate change and extreme climate events, drought agro-meteorological disasters which occur frequently has taken a serious threat for our food production and agricul- tural sustainable development. Selecting or building suitable agricultural drought disaster risk indicators for drought risk zoning, and on this basis, determining premium rates is very valuable in enriching agricul- tural insurance model and promoting the stability and development of the agricultural insurance business. Based on the natural water deficit rate index, precipitation anomalies of the percentage rate and drought in- dex, this paper builds drought comprehensive risk index, and carries out drought risk zoning study. Then, using the revised premium rate, the premium ratemaking model applicable to the study area is worked out so as to search for a more comprehensive improvement of the current agricultural insurance business insurance model, and achieve the sustainable and healthy development of the winter wheat agricultural insurance.